The archetypal fixed income security is the bond. A bond is an instrument of indebtedness of the issuer to the
holder. The holder pays an upfront fee to the issuer in exchange for a series of pre-determined future
cash-flows. Hence, the issuer borrows money now in order to finance their needs, and pays the holder back across
the lifetime of the bond along with interest. Governments and corporations both borrow money by issuing
bonds, utilising the upfront fees buyers pay for the instrument in order to finance their activities.
The fundamental object we consider is that of a zero-coupon bond (ZCB). A ZCB makes a single payment, at the so-called maturity date of the bond. In contrast to a standard coupon bond, where interest payments are made throughout the lifetime of the bond, the interest paid on a ZCB is entirely baked-into the market price of the instrument. At its maturity, the holder receives the par (or face) value of the bond.
While there are large and liquid markets for zero-coupon bonds, for example US Treasury bills (T-bills) for short-term bonds, we shall see that in a liquid and well-functioning market, the prices of longer-term term ZCBs can be extracted from the prices of more liquid, coupon bearing bonds.
Hence, our analysis of ZCB prices is primarily theoretical, and in the following we will assume the existence of a continuous set of ZCB prices for a large range of maturities.
Zero-coupon bonds make a single payment at their maturity date . For ease of calculation, we normalise this payment to 1 unit of currency, and refer to a ZCB with maturity as a -bond. Since I'm a proud Brit, unless otherwise specified, we will assume a base currency of Pound sterling, £.
A ZCB of maturity (or -bond) is a contract paying 1 unit of currency on the maturity date . We will denote its value at the time by
The next fundamental quantity that we are interested in is that of a forward rate. To get to this, we introduce the concept of a forward bond. The best way to motivate this concept is through an example.
Suppose we are interested in purchasing, at some future time , a ZCB maturing at , . Today, at time , the price of such a bond can be locked in as follows:
Despite costing nothing to setup, a flow of will take place at time due to the maturity of our -bond position. Likewise, a flow of will take place at time due to our position in the -bond. In other words, our strategy fixes the time price of the bond at
a quantity known as the time forward price for the ZCB spanning .
The time price for a forward bond with expiry date into a bond with maturity date , is given by .
Often, it is convenient to characterize a forward bond price by a discount rate. There are numerous ways to do this, but one is the continuously compounded forward yield , defined implicitly by
The time value for the continuously compounded forward yield corresponding to the forward bond price for the interval is given by .
The time between the expiry of the forward contract and the maturity of the underlying bond, , is often called the tenor of the forward bond or forward yield.
The above yield is motivated by the idea that the issuer of the ZCB invests their proceeds into a continuously compounding account. The time scaling term in the exponential above ensures that yields are comparable across tenors, making yields a useful metric for comparing different ZCBs.
Most actual market quotes, however, are based on discrete-time compounding of proceeds. Accordingly, we define a simple forward rate as
The time value for the simple forward rate corresponding to the forward bond price for the interval is given by .
Again, is the tenor of the forward rate. For an arbitrary set of dates , define the tenor structure by . Notice that the forward bond prices can be recovered from the forward rates by simple compounding:
We will always assume that the spot rates , are the Libor rates quoted in the interbank market. Libor rates are quoted on values of ranging from one week () all the way through to 12 months (). Spot Libor rates are incredibly important in the interest-rate derivatives market. They form the benchmark for a number of instruments, such as interest rate swaps and Eurodollar futures.
Note that for a number of reasons, the market is currently in the process of transitioning away from Libor to the so called risk free rates (RFRs): Sterling Overnight Interbank Average (SONIA) and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the UK and the US respectively.
Another important quantity is known as the instantaneous forward rate at time , denoted by . This quantity can be seen as the forward rate at time for the infinitesimal interval . Hence, it is given by
The time value for the instantaneous forward rate for the infinitesimal interval is given by .
Using the definition of and simple calculus we see that
Integrating both sides and taking exponentials shows that
By comparison with the continuously compounded yield formula we also have
or, upon using the mean value theorem,
Finally, by multiplying both sides of (1.2) by and differentiating, we see have
The quantity is another important quantity in the interest rate modeling world. It is known as the short rate and is an -measurable random variable. Loosely speaking, can be thought of as the overnight rate at time .
The instantaneous forward rate at time for the infinitesimal interval is known as the short rate and is given by
A quantity closely related to the forward rate is the futures rate. Through the Eurodollar futures market, investors can enter into a security paying
at time . At inception, i.e. time 0, a Eurodollar futures contract can be entered into for no upfront cost, but with the implicit obligation of the holder paying
per unit of notional at time , in return for the payout (1.3). Here, the quantity is known as the simple futures rate at time for the period .
The time value for the simple futures rate for the interval is given by .
The important difference between a forward and a futures contract is that the futures rate is marked to market each day, meaning that the day's change in the futures rate is immediately credited (or debited) from the contract holder's account with the futures exchange. This difference is in place to mitigate the credit risk associated with either party in the contract defaulting on their payments and leads to differences in the modeling of futures relative to forwards. Specifically, after holding the contract for a period of day, the futures contract holder would experience a cash flow of
Continuing this process to maturity, denoting day by , the futures holder receives a cumulative cash-flow of
where we have used the fact that must equal to avoid delivery arbitrage (if they were not, we could enter the futures contract at maturity and immediately make a profit (or loss)) by selling the underlying.
As with forward rates, we can define the instantaneous futures rate via:
The time value for the instantaneous futures rate for the infinitesimal interval is given by .
In contrast to ZCBs, most fixed income securities involve multiple cash-flows taking place on a predetermined schedule of dates, referred to as a tenor structure, . Given such a tenor structure, for any two integers and satisfying , and , we define the annuity factor by
The time annuity factor for the tenor structure , with and satisfying , and is given by as defined above.
Annuity factors supply us with a compact way of expressing the price of coupon-bearing bonds. For instance, if a coupon bond makes interest payments, each of a value and each paid at the time for , we can consider each of these payments as a separate ZCB scaled by notional , so the security has time value
If the security also involves a final payment of principal, as is the case for standard coupon-bearing bonds, the coupon bearing bond has time price
where the bond has been normalized to pay unit notional. The time forward price for expiry is then given by
The value of the coupon payment for which this expression is at par, i.e. 1 is known as the forward par rate, or, when used in the context of swap pricing, as the forward swap rate. Denoting this quantity by and rearranging gives
The time forward swap rate for the tenor structure , with and satisfying , and is given by as defined above.
From the definition of the simple forward rate we then see that the above can be rewritten as
where .
Hence, one interpretation of the forward swap rate is that it is simply a weighted average of simple forward rates on the tenor structure. The time is often referred to as the fixing date, or expiry of the swap rate , while the length of the corresponding swap is often called the tenor of the swap rate.